Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Weekly Market Overview

Stocks began the week with a decline despite a Federal Reserve fueled rally late last week after rates were cut. Technology companies led the pack with gains in spending without significant inventory buildup. Meanwhile, General Motors shares fell amid a strike by UAW workers after the union failed to meet a deadline for contact negotiation. Internationally, the USD also reached a new low against the Euro while oil came under selling pressure from fears of a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico. In the end, this week promise to be interesting as investors gauge market strengths post-rate hike.

Top 10 Stocks to Watch this Week

Fundamental Analysis

  1. Tyco Electronics (TEL) - After recently spinning off from Tyco this stock is down almost 10%, but is starting to catch the attention of value investors. The company is trading well below its peers with strong cash flows. It is also a victim of the spin-off effect, which has made it an even greater value to opportunistic investors. We believe that this company will outperform in the long-term. (Read More)
  2. Capital Southwest (CSWC) - Activist investor Ned Sherwood came out with an analysis on this company showing a $200/share valuation. The only thing holding shares back are practices by the company that can easily be changed if they so desire. Unfortunately, the company seems resistant to change now, but this is definitely a stock to watch incase they change their mind. (Read More)
  3. United Online (UNTD) - Classmates.com is one of the fastest growing social networking websites on the Internet and this company plans to spin it off real soon. Investors should keep an eye on this development as spin-offs not only represent great investment opportunities, but the social networking space is red hot with names like Facebook and Myspace in the news constantly. (Read More)
  4. Brinks Company (BCO) - Activist hedge funds Pirate Capital and MMI Investments are still fighting the company to unlock value through a divesture of several key businesses. Given the difficult credit market, some are now questioning whether or not this is possible. However, if credit markets improve and they hedge funds are successful during the next annual meeting, this stock could soar. (Read More)
  5. Ceridian Corp. (CEN) - This activist target has agreed to bend to the pressure of the hedge funds and is definitely a company to watch ahead of its annual meeting where it will fight to retain its incumbant board members. If Pershing Square is successful in installing its own board members, we could see significant share appreciation. (Read More)

Technical Analysis

Computer Programs & Systems Inc. (CPSI) - Long term bullish double bottom.
Verisign  Incorporated (VRSN) - Intermediate term bullish symmetrical triangle.
Seattle Genetics  Inc. (SGEN) - Long term bullish upside breakout.
Optium Corporation (OPTM) - Intermediate term triple bottom.
Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) - Intermediate term bullish head and shoulders bottom.

Stock of the Week : Brinks Buyback Not Enough (BCO)

The Brink's Company (NYSE:BCO) took its first major step towards unlocking shareholder value recently after receiving a lot of pressure from Thomas Hudson's Pirate Capital. The security company agreed to insitute a $100 million share repurchase to please the activist shareholder, according to an 8-K filing with the SEC. (Read More)

Article of the Week : Credit Crisis Threatens Activist Investors

Activist investors have worked to unlock value for shareholders in hundreds of companies over the past few years by holding a sword to the throats of board members and executives. The results have been spectacular with one study reporting that activism targets between 2001 and 2005 outperformed the overall market by more than 7 percent in the short term. Unfortunately, this shareholder revolution may be coming to an end as the credit crunch puts a hold on many common activist strategies. (Read More)

Final Words

The market remains optimistic despite questionable yields and other economic data. While this is good news for investors in the short term, be sure to use caution and only invest prudently.

9/25/2007 2:02:22 AM UTC  #     |  Trackback
 Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Weekly Market Overview

Stocks began the week with a decline as investors wait to see whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates tomorrow. There is concern amongst traders that the Federal Reserve will only cut interst rates by 25 basis points as opposed to 50 basis points. Trading is expected to remain light ahead of the decision as the market is very divided as to the magnitude of any cuts creating a two-way market. The rumors have caused many financial stocks to decline as many banks had hoped for a 50 basis point cut. Brokerage stocks also declined on poor earnings. In the end, this week will largely depend on the FOMC decision.

Top 10 Stocks to Watch this Week

Fundamental Analysis

  1. Tyco Electronics (TEL) - After recently spinning off from Tyco this stock is down almost 10%, but is starting to catch the attention of value investors. The company is trading well below its peers with strong cash flows. It is also a victim of the spin-off effect, which has made it an even greater value to opportunistic investors. We believe that this company will outperform in the long-term. (Read More)
  2. Capital Southwest (CSWC) - Activist investor Ned Sherwood came out with an analysis on this company showing a $200/share valuation. The only thing holding shares back are practices by the company that can easily be changed if they so desire. Unfortunately, the company seems resistant to change now, but this is definitely a stock to watch incase they change their mind. (Read More)
  3. United Online (UNTD) - Classmates.com is one of the fastest growing social networking websites on the Internet and this company plans to spin it off real soon. Investors should keep an eye on this development as spin-offs not only represent great investment opportunities, but the social networking space is red hot with names like Facebook and Myspace in the news constantly. (Read More)
  4. Brinks Company (BCO) - Activist hedge funds Pirate Capital and MMI Investments are still fighting the company to unlock value through a divesture of several key businesses. Given the difficult credit market, some are now questioning whether or not this is possible. However, if credit markets improve and they hedge funds are successful during the next annual meeting, this stock could soar. (Read More)
  5. Ceridian Corp. (CEN) - This activist target has agreed to bend to the pressure of the hedge funds and is definitely a company to watch ahead of its annual meeting where it will fight to retain its incumbant board members. If Pershing Square is successful in installing its own board members, we could see significant share appreciation. (Read More)

Technical Analysis

  1. Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated (CORT) - Long term bullish head and shoulders bottom.
  2. Radioshack Corporation (RSH) - Intermediate term bullish continuation wedge.
  3. Mirant Corporation (MIR) - Intermediate term bullish head and shoulders bottom.
  4. Tyco International Limited (TYC) - Intermediate term bullish symmetrical continuation triangle.
  5. Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) - Intermediate term bullish symmetrical continuation triangle.

Stock of the Week : Lichtenstein Pushes for Changes at IKON (IKN)

IKON Office Solutions (NYSE:IKN) may face some problems with activist investor Warren Lichtenstein's Steel Partners who believes the company's shares continue to trade well below intrinsic value, according to a Schedule 13D/A filing with the SEC. Shareholders are hoping that the activist investor can work to correct this gap in valuation and unlock value. (Read More)

Article of the Week : How to Analyze the Retail Industry

Retail is the second largest industry in the United States both in the number of stores and employees. It collectively generates approximately $3.8 trillion in sales annually ($4.2 trillion including food sales), which works out to approximately $11,993 per capita. Not only do people spend a significant portion of their income on retail products, but 11.6% of the U.S. population is also employed by retail establishments. In fact, retail trade accounts for about 12.4% of all business establishments in the United States with the largest obviously being Wal-Mart. (Read More)

Final Words

The market remains optimistic despite questionable yields and other economic data. While this is good news for investors in the short term, be sure to use caution and only invest prudently.

9/18/2007 12:39:42 AM UTC  #     |  Trackback
 Monday, September 10, 2007

Weekly Market Overview

Stocks began the week on a positive note as investors carefully watched the Federal Reserve in anticipation of a change in interest rates. Technology stocks as well as financial stocks lifted the market late in the session too as an increasing number of insiders and hedge funds develop stakes in banks hit hard by the mortgage and credit crisis. The current economic condition may look grim but investors are hoping that a cut in interest rates could help the country avoid a recession and take a turn for the better.

Top 10 Stocks to Watch this Week

Fundamental Analysis

  1. Tyco Electronics (TEL) - After recently spinning off from Tyco this stock is down almost 10%, but is starting to catch the attention of value investors. The company is trading well below its peers with strong cash flows. It is also a victim of the spin-off effect, which has made it an even greater value to opportunistic investors. We believe that this company will outperform in the long-term. (Read More)
  2. Capital Southwest (CSWC) - Activist investor Ned Sherwood came out with an analysis on this company showing a $200/share valuation. The only thing holding shares back are practices by the company that can easily be changed if they so desire. Unfortunately, the company seems resistant to change now, but this is definitely a stock to watch incase they change their mind. (Read More)
  3. United Online (UNTD) - Classmates.com is one of the fastest growing social networking websites on the Internet and this company plans to spin it off real soon. Investors should keep an eye on this development as spin-offs not only represent great investment opportunities, but the social networking space is red hot with names like Facebook and Myspace in the news constantly. (Read More)
  4. Brinks Company (BCO) - Activist hedge funds Pirate Capital and MMI Investments are still fighting the company to unlock value through a divesture of several key businesses. Given the difficult credit market, some are now questioning whether or not this is possible. However, if credit markets improve and they hedge funds are successful during the next annual meeting, this stock could soar. (Read More)
  5. Ceridian Corp. (CEN) - This activist target has agreed to bend to the pressure of the hedge funds and is definitely a company to watch ahead of its annual meeting where it will fight to retain its incumbant board members. If Pershing Square is successful in installing its own board members, we could see significant share appreciation. (Read More)

Technical Analysis

  1. Ariba Incorporated (ARBA) - Intermediate term bullish symmetrical continuation triangle.
  2. Neurocrime Biosciences (NBIX) - Long term bullish bottom triangle.
  3. Interface Inc. (IFSIA) - Intermediate term bullish symmetrical continuation triangle.
  4. j2 Global Communications (JCOM) - Intermediate term bullish continuation diamond.
  5. Genentech Inc. (DNA) - Intermediate term bullish megaphone bottom.

Stock of the Week : Liberty Media (LCAPA)

Liberty Media (NDAQ:LCAPA) announced a special shareholder meeting last week set to take place on October 23rd to discuss and vote on a proposed breakup of the company brought to shareholder attention several months ago. Management is hoping that the breakup will help the company unlock value for shareholders, according to a recent S-4 filing with the SEC. (Read More)

Article of the Week : A Look at Subprime Mortgages

Subprime mortgages have been causing quite the stir in Wall Street, but what are these types of mortgages and how might the failure in this relatively small sector of mortgages affect the larger economy? (Read More)

Final Words

The market remains optimistic despite questionable yields and other economic data. While this is good news for investors in the short term, be sure to use caution and only invest prudently.

9/10/2007 7:47:01 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback
 Monday, August 27, 2007

Weekly Market Overview

Stocks close down today erasing earlier highs and indicating a continued negative sentiment with the economy. The two biggests catalysts to the decline were housing data statistics showing unsold homes hitting a 16-year high in July and news that Home Depot cut the price of its whole-sale supply business indicating a weaker credit market. The weaker credit market has also been blamed for countless sales being called off or prices reduced and even a spin-off that was cancelled. Meanwhile, the housing situation continues to get more grim as speculators are still left holding the bag on inventory. Some are pointing to hope, however, in the form of insiders in the financial industry that are purchasing more of their own shares than ever before. This leads many to believe that the road to recovery may be long, but at least we are probably bottoming out.

Top 10 Stocks to Watch this Week

Fundamental Analysis

  1. Tyco Electronics (TEL) - After recently spinning off from Tyco this stock is down almost 10%, but is starting to catch the attention of value investors. The company is trading well below its peers with strong cash flows. It is also a victim of the spin-off effect, which has made it an even greater value to opportunistic investors. We believe that this company will outperform in the long-term. (Read More)
  2. Capital Southwest (CSWC) - Activist investor Ned Sherwood came out with an analysis on this company showing a $200/share valuation. The only thing holding shares back are practices by the company that can easily be changed if they so desire. Unfortunately, the company seems resistant to change now, but this is definitely a stock to watch incase they change their mind. (Read More)
  3. United Online (UNTD) - Classmates.com is one of the fastest growing social networking websites on the Internet and this company plans to spin it off real soon. Investors should keep an eye on this development as spin-offs not only represent great investment opportunities, but the social networking space is red hot with names like Facebook and Myspace in the news constantly. (Read More)
  4. Brinks Company (BCO) - Activist hedge funds Pirate Capital and MMI Investments are still fighting the company to unlock value through a divesture of several key businesses. Given the difficult credit market, some are now questioning whether or not this is possible. However, if credit markets improve and they hedge funds are successful during the next annual meeting, this stock could soar. (Read More)
  5. Ceridian Corp. (CEN) - This activist target has agreed to bend to the pressure of the hedge funds and is definitely a company to watch ahead of its annual meeting where it will fight to retain its incumbant board members. If Pershing Square is successful in installing its own board members, we could see significant share appreciation. (Read More)

Technical Analysis

  1. Activision Inc. (ATVI) - Intermediate term bullish continuation diamond.
  2. Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI) - Long term bullish continuation diamond.
  3. Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) - Intermediate term bullish symmetrical continuation triangle.
  4. Petrohawk Energy Corp. (HK) - Intermediate term bullish continuation diamond.
  5. Acme Packet Inc. (APKT) - Long term bullish head and shoulders bottom.
Stock of the Week : H&R Block (HRB)

H&R Block (NYSE:HRB) shareholders are gearing up for this years September 6th board meeting where they will be faced with a decision whether or not to vote for incumbent board members or a new slate of three directors proposed by ex-SEC head Richard Breeden's hedge fund, Breeden Capital Partners. Shareholders are hoping that these new directors can implement a series of changes designed to jump the company's stagnant share price. (Read More)

Article of the Week : Credit Crunch Threatens Activist Investors

Activist investors have worked to unlock value for shareholders in hundreds of companies over the past few years by holding a sword to the throats of board members and executives. The results have been spectacular with one study reporting that activism targets between 2001 and 2005 outperformed the overall market by more than 7 percent in the short term. Unfortunately, this shareholder revolution may be coming to an end as the credit crunch puts a hold on many common activist strategies. (Read More)

Final Words

The market remains optimistic despite questionable yields and other economic data. While this is good news for investors in the short term, be sure to use caution and only invest prudently.

8/27/2007 9:08:41 PM UTC  #     |  Trackback
 Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Weekly Market Overview

Stocks closed up today after a late day bounce. Increasing strains in the credit market coupled with a Fed that is apparently open to rate cuts eased investor concerns as short term Treasury bills rallied late in the day. The Fed funds rate is currently trading well below the target of 5.25% at just 5.06% - meaning that all the liquidity concerns that have been causing downward pressure are being eased by Fed injections. In the end, many believe that the markets are still in trouble, but for now it seems that the Fed as eased concerns in the short-term. Whether or how long this will last depends on many factors, so investors should be aware that risks exist!

Top 10 Stocks to Watch this Week

Fundamental Analysis

  1. Brinks Company (BCO) – The Brink’s Company remains on our watchlist since both MMI and Pirate Capital still hold significant stakes in the company. The company recently announced higher than expected earnings along with a dividend increase. Pirate Capital recently announced that it has determined that the majority of investors would support at least the consideration of a breakup. They also
  2. Ceridian Corporation (CEN) – Bill Ackman’s activist play also continues to hold appeal with us since the breakup could unlock substantial value. We have not seen an announcement of an official date, but as of March 13th, Pershing Square is still engaged in a proxy contest with the company’s board of directors. Recently, Pershing Square lost its battle to obtain questionable letters, but vowed to continue pursuing its objectives. However, news came out today stating that one potential buyer of Ceridian was able to obtain $3.5 billion in debt financing, which is great news for shareholders holding out for a buyout. Meanwhile, shareholders recently won a lawsuit against the company that may level the competitive bidding landscape, paving the way for an increased bid.
  3. Hexcel Corporation (HXL) – OSS Capital demanded today that the company engage an investment bank to explore strategic alternatives. The company’s shares are worth $14 per share above the current market price if priced at its peers’ levels. All we are waiting on is the support of the board of directors! Meanwhile, the company has received several analyst upgrades and sits near its 52-week high.
  4. Applebees International (APPB) – Breeden Capital Management first approached Applebees several months ago suggesting that the company put itself up for sale. Three weeks ago, the company announced that it had received several takeover offers and would review the bids before taking final offers. Recently, the company also agreed to yield two board seats to activist investor Breeden Partners. The company finally announced a sale today at $2.1 billion - a 4% premium to Friday's close and a substantial increase from when we first mentioned the stock.
  5. Universal Power Group (UPG) – 3V Capital Management announced last week that they weren’t pleased with the company’s valuation. They recommended several changes that they hope would enhance shareholder value. We are still waiting on more details and a response from the company, but this was definitely a stock worth following!

Technical Analysis

  1. Hudson City Bank Corp. (HCBK) - Intermediate term bullish head and shoulders bottom.
  2. Investools Inc. (SWIM) - Intermediate term bullish continuation wedge.
  3. Ebay inc. (EBAY) - Intermediate term bullish continuation diamond.
  4. Medarex Inc. (MEDX) - Long term bullish continuation diamond.
  5. Neustar (NSR) - Long term bullish continuation diamond.
Stock of the Week : Gyrodyne Corp. (GYRO)

Gyrodyne Corporation (NDAQ:GYRO) directors may face some competition at the company's next annual meeting. Full Value Partners announced in a Schedule 13D/A filing their intention to solicit proxies in an attempt to takeover the company's board during the next annual meeting. The hedge fund said that it plans to eliminate the company's poison pill and work to unlock value in the company if successful. (Read More)

Tip of the Week : Understanding Subprime Mortgages

Subprime mortgages have been causing quite the stir in Wall Street, but what are these types of mortgages and how might the failure in this relatively small sector of mortgages affect the larger economy? (Read More)

Final Words

The market remains optimistic despite questionable yields and other economic data. While this is good news for investors in the short term, be sure to use caution and only invest prudently.

8/21/2007 1:43:24 AM UTC  #     |  Trackback
 Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Weekly Market Overview

Stocks closed down slightly today erasing earlier gains after Goldman Sachs revealed that it had injected $3 billion into some of its hedge funds hurt by the credit markets. Many analysts say that it will be difficult to predict when the crisis will end given the unanticipated consequences of the subprime collapse. Overseas, central banks around the world continued to add liquidity to the credit markets in order to ease concerns and volatility. Whether or not we will see a quick turnaround from this crisis remains to be seen; however, investors should at least keep a close eye on credit and subprime developments as problems continue to rise.

Top 10 Stocks to Watch this Week

Fundamental Analysis

  1. Brinks Company (BCO) – The Brink’s Company remains on our watchlist since both MMI and Pirate Capital still hold significant stakes in the company. The company recently announced higher than expected earnings along with a dividend increase. Pirate Capital recently announced that it has determined that the majority of investors would support at least the consideration of a breakup. They also
  2. Ceridian Corporation (CEN) – Bill Ackman’s activist play also continues to hold appeal with us since the breakup could unlock substantial value. We have not seen an announcement of an official date, but as of March 13th, Pershing Square is still engaged in a proxy contest with the company’s board of directors. Recently, Pershing Square lost its battle to obtain questionable letters, but vowed to continue pursuing its objectives. However, news came out today stating that one potential buyer of Ceridian was able to obtain $3.5 billion in debt financing, which is great news for shareholders holding out for a buyout. Meanwhile, shareholders recently won a lawsuit against the company that may level the competitive bidding landscape, paving the way for an increased bid.
  3. Hexcel Corporation (HXL) – OSS Capital demanded today that the company engage an investment bank to explore strategic alternatives. The company’s shares are worth $14 per share above the current market price if priced at its peers’ levels. All we are waiting on is the support of the board of directors! Meanwhile, the company has received several analyst upgrades and sits near its 52-week high.
  4. Applebees International (APPB) – Breeden Capital Management first approached Applebees several months ago suggesting that the company put itself up for sale. Three weeks ago, the company announced that it had received several takeover offers and would review the bids before taking final offers. Recently, the company also agreed to yield two board seats to activist investor Breeden Partners. The company finally announced a sale today at $2.1 billion - a 4% premium to Friday's close and a substantial increase from when we first mentioned the stock.
  5. Universal Power Group (UPG) – 3V Capital Management announced last week that they weren’t pleased with the company’s valuation. They recommended several changes that they hope would enhance shareholder value. We are still waiting on more details and a response from the company, but this was definitely a stock worth following!

Technical Analysis

  1. Hudson City Bank Corp. (HCBK) - Intermediate term bullish head and shoulders bottom.
  2. Investools Inc. (SWIM) - Intermediate term bullish continuation wedge.
  3. Ebay inc. (EBAY) - Intermediate term bullish continuation diamond.
  4. Medarex Inc. (MEDX) - Long term bullish continuation diamond.
  5. Neustar (NSR) - Long term bullish continuation diamond.
Stock of the Week : Temple-Inland (TIN)

Brink's Company (NYSE:BCO) shares moved down marginally today after Thomas Hudson's Pirate Capital disclosed a 4.5 percent stake and issued a letter to the board of directors. In the letter, the activist hedge fund revealed a DF King & Co. survey of Brink's shareholders showing widespread support for its proposed breakup of the company. (Read More)

Tip of the Week : Understanding Subprime Mortgages

Subprime mortgages have been causing quite the stir in Wall Street, but what are these types of mortgages and how might the failure in this relatively small sector of mortgages affect the larger economy? (Read More)

Final Words

The market remains optimistic despite questionable yields and other economic data. While this is good news for investors in the short term, be sure to use caution and only invest prudently.

8/14/2007 2:35:10 AM UTC  #     |  Trackback
 Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Weekly Market Overview

Stocks rallied to close up over 280 points for its best day since 2003 in a further show of volatility among concerns about credit markets and bad home loans. Leading the indexes was the financial sector as shares in AIG, Citigroup and JP Morgan each rose over 3% on the day. Another catalyst appeared to be a comment from a managing director at Standard & Poor who said the market had overreacted to its decision Friday to lower its ratings outlook on Bear Stearns. Perhaps it is just the first round of bargain hunters, but many more are joining the crowd that believes troubles are not as bad as the market has priced.

Top 10 Stocks to Watch this Week

Fundamental Analysis

  1. Brinks Company (BCO) – The Brink’s Company remains on our watchlist since both MMI and Pirate Capital still hold significant stakes in the company. The company recently announced higher than expected earnings along with a dividend increase. We are still waiting to hear about the activist situation.
  2. Ceridian Corporation (CEN) – Bill Ackman’s activist play also continues to hold appeal with us since the breakup could unlock substantial value. We have not seen an announcement of an official date, but as of March 13th, Pershing Square is still engaged in a proxy contest with the company’s board of directors. Recently, Pershing Square lost its battle to obtain questionable letters, but vowed to continue pursuing its objectives. However, news came out today stating that one potential buyer of Ceridian was able to obtain $3.5 billion in debt financing, which is great news for shareholders holding out for a buyout. Meanwhile, shareholders recently won a lawsuit against the company that may level the competitive bidding landscape, paving the way for an increased bid.
  3. Hexcel Corporation (HXL) – OSS Capital demanded today that the company engage an investment bank to explore strategic alternatives. The company’s shares are worth $14 per share above the current market price if priced at its peers’ levels. All we are waiting on is the support of the board of directors! Meanwhile, the company has received several analyst upgrades and sits near its 52-week high.
  4. Applebees International (APPB) – Breeden Capital Management first approached Applebees several months ago suggesting that the company put itself up for sale. Three weeks ago, the company announced that it had received several takeover offers and would review the bids before taking final offers. Recently, the company also agreed to yield two board seats to activist investor Breeden Partners. The company finally announced a sale today at $2.1 billion - a 4% premium to Friday's close and a substantial increase from when we first mentioned the stock.
  5. Universal Power Group (UPG) – 3V Capital Management announced last week that they weren’t pleased with the company’s valuation. They recommended several changes that they hope would enhance shareholder value. We are still waiting on more details and a response from the company, but this was definitely a stock worth following!

Technical Analysis

  1. Hudson City Bank Corp. (HCBK) - Intermediate term bullish head and shoulders bottom.
  2. Investools Inc. (SWIM) - Intermediate term bullish continuation wedge.
  3. Ebay inc. (EBAY) - Intermediate term bullish continuation diamond.
  4. Medarex Inc. (MEDX) - Long term bullish continuation diamond.
  5. Neustar (NSR) - Long term bullish continuation diamond.
Stock of the Week : Temple-Inland (TIN)

Temple-Inland (NYSE:TIN) shares moved up $0.86, or 1.6%, to $54.76 today after the company announced that it would sell its timberland holdings for $2.4 billion and distribute the money to shareholders via a special dividend. The move comes amid an Icahn-led restructuring of the company that many shareholders are hoping can help it unlock value. (Read More)

Tip of the Week : Know Your Peers - Pirate Capital

Pirate Capital is one of the most well-known activist hedge funds in today's marketplace. Learn more about their management and strategies they use to unlock value in their investments! (Read More)

Final Words

The market remains optimistic despite questionable yields and other economic data. While this is good news for investors in the short term, be sure to use caution and only invest prudently.

8/7/2007 12:54:17 AM UTC  #     |  Trackback
 Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Weekly Market Overview

U.S. markets started the week on a positive note after a rough week last week that dropped down down below 14,000. The markets were dragged down by subprime issues and a difficult credit market but troubles were eased today after the S&P upgraded JP Morgan's credit rating to AA-minus, saying that concerns about the company's subprime exposure and credit issuers were overrated. Meanwhile, Sowood Capital, a $3 billion hedge fund, announced that it lost 50% of its value last month and would be liquidating the fund - selling its assets to Citadel. So, while the subprime market appears to be partially recovering the credit market still has problems that many hedge funds may end up struggling with. And in the end, this could reduce the deal flow that we have seen prop up the stock market recently - we'll have to wait and see...

Top 10 Stocks to Watch this Week

Fundamental Analysis

  1. Brinks Company (BCO) – The Brink’s Company remains on our watchlist since both MMI and Pirate Capital still hold significant stakes in the company. The company recently announced higher than expected earnings along with a dividend increase. We are still waiting to hear about the activist situation.
  2. Ceridian Corporation (CEN) – Bill Ackman’s activist play also continues to hold appeal with us since the breakup could unlock substantial value. We have not seen an announcement of an official date, but as of March 13th, Pershing Square is still engaged in a proxy contest with the company’s board of directors. Recently, Pershing Square lost its battle to obtain questionable letters, but vowed to continue pursuing its objectives. However, news came out today stating that one potential buyer of Ceridian was able to obtain $3.5 billion in debt financing, which is great news for shareholders holding out for a buyout. Meanwhile, shareholders recently won a lawsuit against the company that may level the competitive bidding landscape, paving the way for an increased bid.
  3. Hexcel Corporation (HXL) – OSS Capital demanded today that the company engage an investment bank to explore strategic alternatives. The company’s shares are worth $14 per share above the current market price if priced at its peers’ levels. All we are waiting on is the support of the board of directors! Meanwhile, the company has received several analyst upgrades and sits near its 52-week high.
  4. Applebees International (APPB) – Breeden Capital Management first approached Applebees several months ago suggesting that the company put itself up for sale. Three weeks ago, the company announced that it had received several takeover offers and would review the bids before taking final offers. Recently, the company also agreed to yield two board seats to activist investor Breeden Partners. The company finally announced a sale today at $2.1 billion - a 4% premium to Friday's close and a substantial increase from when we first mentioned the stock.
  5. Universal Power Group (UPG) – 3V Capital Management announced last week that they weren’t pleased with the company’s valuation. They recommended several changes that they hope would enhance shareholder value. We are still waiting on more details and a response from the company, but this was definitely a stock worth following!

Technical Analysis

  1. Lance Inc. (LNCE) - Intermediate term bullish continuation diamond.
  2. Epsey Mfg & Electronics (ESP) - Intermediate term bullish ascending continuation triangle.
  3. Sungard Data Systems (SDS) - Intermediate term bullish megaphone bottom.
  4. Zoll Medical (ZOLL) - Intermedaite term bullish head and shoulders bottom.
  5. Seabright Insurance (SEAB) - Long term bullish continuation diamond.
Stock of the Week : Packeteer Inc. (PKTR)

Packeteer Inc. (NDAQ:PKTR) shares moved up marginally today after Chapman Capital disclosed a 9.9 percent stake in the company and demanded that the company immediately hire an investment bank to maximize shareholder value. The wireless application provider has been facing widespread criticism since posting a wide loss during the second quarter of this year. Shareholders are hoping that Chapman can help unlock value through a sale of the company. (Read More)

Tip of the Week : The Mechanics of a Share Buyback

There are a number of ways in which companies can return cash to shareholders other than the usual dividend payments. One of the most common ways is through something called a share buyback. This article will take a look at what a share buyback is and what it means for shareholders. (Read More)

Final Words

The market remains optimistic despite questionable yields and other economic data. While this is good news for investors in the short term, be sure to use caution and only invest prudently.

7/31/2007 2:09:13 AM UTC  #     |  Trackback