Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Weekly Market Overview

Stocks rallied to close up over 280 points for its best day since 2003 in a further show of volatility among concerns about credit markets and bad home loans. Leading the indexes was the financial sector as shares in AIG, Citigroup and JP Morgan each rose over 3% on the day. Another catalyst appeared to be a comment from a managing director at Standard & Poor who said the market had overreacted to its decision Friday to lower its ratings outlook on Bear Stearns. Perhaps it is just the first round of bargain hunters, but many more are joining the crowd that believes troubles are not as bad as the market has priced.

Top 10 Stocks to Watch this Week

Fundamental Analysis

  1. Brinks Company (BCO) – The Brink’s Company remains on our watchlist since both MMI and Pirate Capital still hold significant stakes in the company. The company recently announced higher than expected earnings along with a dividend increase. We are still waiting to hear about the activist situation.
  2. Ceridian Corporation (CEN) – Bill Ackman’s activist play also continues to hold appeal with us since the breakup could unlock substantial value. We have not seen an announcement of an official date, but as of March 13th, Pershing Square is still engaged in a proxy contest with the company’s board of directors. Recently, Pershing Square lost its battle to obtain questionable letters, but vowed to continue pursuing its objectives. However, news came out today stating that one potential buyer of Ceridian was able to obtain $3.5 billion in debt financing, which is great news for shareholders holding out for a buyout. Meanwhile, shareholders recently won a lawsuit against the company that may level the competitive bidding landscape, paving the way for an increased bid.
  3. Hexcel Corporation (HXL) – OSS Capital demanded today that the company engage an investment bank to explore strategic alternatives. The company’s shares are worth $14 per share above the current market price if priced at its peers’ levels. All we are waiting on is the support of the board of directors! Meanwhile, the company has received several analyst upgrades and sits near its 52-week high.
  4. Applebees International (APPB) – Breeden Capital Management first approached Applebees several months ago suggesting that the company put itself up for sale. Three weeks ago, the company announced that it had received several takeover offers and would review the bids before taking final offers. Recently, the company also agreed to yield two board seats to activist investor Breeden Partners. The company finally announced a sale today at $2.1 billion - a 4% premium to Friday's close and a substantial increase from when we first mentioned the stock.
  5. Universal Power Group (UPG) – 3V Capital Management announced last week that they weren’t pleased with the company’s valuation. They recommended several changes that they hope would enhance shareholder value. We are still waiting on more details and a response from the company, but this was definitely a stock worth following!

Technical Analysis

  1. Hudson City Bank Corp. (HCBK) - Intermediate term bullish head and shoulders bottom.
  2. Investools Inc. (SWIM) - Intermediate term bullish continuation wedge.
  3. Ebay inc. (EBAY) - Intermediate term bullish continuation diamond.
  4. Medarex Inc. (MEDX) - Long term bullish continuation diamond.
  5. Neustar (NSR) - Long term bullish continuation diamond.
Stock of the Week : Temple-Inland (TIN)

Temple-Inland (NYSE:TIN) shares moved up $0.86, or 1.6%, to $54.76 today after the company announced that it would sell its timberland holdings for $2.4 billion and distribute the money to shareholders via a special dividend. The move comes amid an Icahn-led restructuring of the company that many shareholders are hoping can help it unlock value. (Read More)

Tip of the Week : Know Your Peers - Pirate Capital

Pirate Capital is one of the most well-known activist hedge funds in today's marketplace. Learn more about their management and strategies they use to unlock value in their investments! (Read More)

Final Words

The market remains optimistic despite questionable yields and other economic data. While this is good news for investors in the short term, be sure to use caution and only invest prudently.